The GOP Base is Eroding
MSNBC:
Wow. It is about time but still pretty unexpected.
Furthermore:
For the first time since 2001, the NEWSWEEK poll shows that more Americans trust the Democrats than the GOP on moral values and the war on terror. Fully 53 percent of Americans want the Democrats to win control of Congress next month, including 10 percent of Republicans, compared to just 35 percent who want the GOP to retain power. If the election were held today, 51 percent of likely voters would vote for the Democrat in their district versus 39 percent who would vote for the Republican.
Wow. It is about time but still pretty unexpected.
Furthermore:
A nationwide poll of 1,500 registered voters released yesterday by the nonpartisan Pew Research Center found that 57 percent of white evangelicals are inclined to vote for Republican congressional candidates in the midterm elections, a 21-point drop in support among this critical part of the GOP base.
This poll may not be good news in the respect that it's new or something that hasn't been seen in a while. Polls that represent a majority of Americans concerning who they would like to see controlling our legislative branches don't mean much because districts have been gerrymandered to hell. So if amount XX% from the poll lives in a large city and they say they want Democrats to control Congress, it doesn't matter in a place like, say, Wyoming, where no matter what the Republican is going to win. Or it doesn't matter in some Texas districts where they have been rearranged to purposely place Republican majorities in them. I do believe (though I'd have to check on this) that, over the past few election cycles where Republicans have retained control of the Senate, most votes cast for Senators went to Democrat candidates. So, in essence, we have city folk v. rural folk, and guess whose vote has more power when large and small state both have the same number of Senators?
I don't think I'm being too clear right now, but you probably get my point. It's great that most of the country wants Democrats to control Congress, but because of how these states are spread out over states and districts, most of the country doesn't matter for much.
What I do think is good news, though, is the poll you cited saying that evangelics are thinking about staying home. I think the Foley scandal is going to play a HUGE role in this, because evangelics are values voters. They vote for candidates based on their stances on "moral" issues like gay marriage and abortion. SO to have not only a Republican Congressman caught diddling teenage boys, but to have the GOP leadership covering this behavior up for years, that's going to stick out in the minds of evangelical values voters. As opposed to causing them to vote Democrat (that will never happen), it might have the effect of keeping them home -- which, as far as I'm concerned, is just as good.
Posted by tas | 9:38 PM